Brent oil prices slip as investors assess risks of supply disruption

Brent oil prices drifted lower in Asian trade on Tuesday as investors assessed risks of a supply disruption after Iran conducted naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz ahead of nuclear talks with the US later in the day.

Brent crude futures were down 0.86 per cent, or 59 cents, at $68.06 a barrel at 07:38 GMT, following a 1.33pc gain on Monday.

US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.21 a barrel, up 32 cents, or 0.51pc, but the move included all of Monday’s price action as the contract did not have a settlement that day due to the Presidents Day holiday in the US.

Many markets are closed on Tuesday for Lunar New Year holidays, including mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore.

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he would be involved “indirectly” in the talks in Geneva, adding he believes Tehran wants to make a deal.

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will take part in the negotiations, which are being mediated by Oman, a source briefed on the matter told Reuters, alongside Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.

“Market sentiment is closely tied to the tone and progress of these negotiations … sustaining a geopolitical risk premium in prices,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm.

Oil prices are therefore likely to stay volatile, with sharp two-way swings driven by diplomatic signals rather than pure demand-supply fundamentals, Sachdeva added.

Iran began a military drill on Monday in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital international waterway and oil export route from Gulf Arab states, which have been appealing for diplomacy to end the dispute.

Iran, along with fellow Organizsation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq, export most of their crude via the strait, mainly to Asia.

Meanwhile, Citi said if disruptions to Russian supply keep Brent in a $65 to $70 per barrel range in the coming months, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and 10 other major oil-producing nations (Opec+) are likely to respond by increasing output from spare capacity.

Opec+ is leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April, three Opec+ sources said, as the group prepares for peak summer demand and with prices bolstered by US-Iran tensions.

“It is our base case that both Iran and Russia-Ukraine deals happen by or during the summer of this year, contributing to a decline in prices to $60-62/barrel Brent,” Citi said.

Ukrainian and Russian officials are set to meet in Geneva on Tuesday and Wednesday for a new round of US-brokered peace talks, which the Kremlin said would likely focus on territory, the main sticking point.

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