The emerging axis

THE post-1979 Middle Eastern regional security architecture is on the brink of collapse. Israel, on the pretext of the Oct 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas, has been targeting Iran and its allies in the region, including Hamas and Hezbollah. It has weakened Iranian leverage in the regional security order. From leadership decapitation strategies to disarmament plans, the US and Israel ensured Iran received least regional support before starting their military campaign against it.

Although after more than a week of the US-Israel joint campaign, the Iranian military, the Revolutionary Guards and political leadership continue to show remarkable resilience, the endgame remains unclear. It is safe to claim that the assassination of the top theocratic and military leadership has united the Iranian nation, but the past two years of Israel’s military campaign against Iranian proxies and US-Israel joint military campaigns in June 2025 and February 2026 have weakened the state’s influence in the region.

In fact, the recent military campaign against Iran has significantly damaged Tehran’s military, naval and ballistic missile launch capabilities. Infrastructure damage means a greater economic burden to rebuild roads, stadiums, hospitals, schools, government buildings, etc. Thus, even if the theocratic regime survives, Tehran cannot afford to patronise the ‘axis of resistance’ in the region for many years, if not decades. This is mainly because patronising the axis has proven costly, and is diverting resources away from rebuilding the war-torn country, which could provoke internal resistance.

The US and Israel have envisioned that in the absence of the axis, Israel will emerge as the only dominant player in Middle Eastern geopolitics. For this purpose, the US has tried to establish a conducive political environment for Israel through facilitating the Abraham Accords with some Gulf states. Similarly, Israel’s military campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran have ensured that no military threat can pose a challenge to its national security. Tel Aviv also hopes that the absence of the axis of resistance will mute Muslim voices against Israeli occupation strategies in Palestine.

Several structural factors suggest the potential emergence of a Sunni geopolitical axis.

However, the vacuum, caused by the weakening of the axis, will likely be filled by an emerging ‘Sunni axis’. Although not formally declared, several structural factors suggest the potential emergence of a Sunni geopolitical axis led by Saudi Arabia and Turkiye that will challenge Israeli influence in the Middle East, bringing into greater focus the Arab-Israeli two-state solution.

Historically, ties between Saudi Arabia and Turkiye have been marked by a trust deficit and divergent approaches to regional issues. However, both countries are gradually converging on a strategic platform that blends diplomatic coordination on Palestine with deepened defence cooperation and policy alignment across regional conflicts such as Syria, Sudan, Somalia and Yemen.

The strategies of the emerging axis to confront Israel and safeguard Palestinian interests will be different from Iran’s strategies. Tehran’s resistance model was created on the basis of patronising and nurturing ideologically motivated non-state actors. The axis will largely be a part of a state-centric alliance framework. Similarly, unlike Iran, this axis will push for more diplomatic engagement with the West for the resolution of the Palestine issue. Turkiye and Saudi Arabia enjoy significant political and economic clout in the West and the Islamic world. Moreover, Saudi-led Arab countries have the economic capacity to empower Palestinian society through rebuilding, reconstruction and investment efforts.

Iran’s axis of resistance was fundamentally anti-West and rejected the US-led regional order. Contrary to this ideology, both Saudi Arabia and Turkiye remain deeply integrated with Western systems. Turkiye is a Nato member, while Saudi Arabia remains tied to the US security architecture. In essence, the axis will likely avoid direct confrontation with the US. However, it will employ strategic bargaining rather than ideological defiance for advocacy of the Palestinian cause.

Pakistan will likely emerge as a crucial member of this emerging bloc, although historically Islamabad has avoided direct participation in Middle Eastern conflicts and prioritised neutrality. However, there are three major factors that might push Pakistan to become a crucial pillar of the axis.

First, Pakistan enjoys a special relationship with Saudi Arabia and Turkiye. In 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement. Islamabad is currently pushing for a tripartite strategic defence pact between itself, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye. Islamabad, Ankara and Riyadh have had unique security and economic links for decades, encompassing everything from financial support and energy collaboration to military training and defence cooperation. This tripartite alliance between Ankara, Riyadh and Islamabad increases the likelihood that Pakistan will align itself with a larger Sunni geopolitical framework and lay the groundwork for closer coordination on regional security issues.

Second, the increasing convergence of objectives and strategies on significant regional issues, including the Palestine issue and confrontation with Israel, is another factor propelling Pakistan’s possible involvement in such an alignment. Islamabad’s diplomatic stance on Palestinian statehood is also aligned with that of Ankara and Riyadh. Third, in addition to policy convergence, Pakistan might see joining a larger Sunni strategic coalition as an attempt to further improve its reputation and prestige in the Muslim world.

Although the evolving axis will avoid direct confrontation with Washington and Tel Aviv, its ability to mobilise mass regional pressure to counter Israeli influence could unleash a new wave of bloc politics in the region. Israel has already hinted at a counterweight to the axis by establishing a trans-regional bloc consisting of India, Greece, the UAE and Cyprus to manipulate existing insecurities and rifts with key members of the axis.

Amid Israel’s strategic response to a potential Sunni axis, the coming years will reveal whether this alignment can coordinate a regional strategy determining the political future of Palestine and the wider Middle East.

The writer is a strategic analyst of international security. The views expressed are his own.

X: @itskhurramabbas

Published in Dawn, March 9th, 2026

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