Who will win?

WILL Iran win the war with the US and Israel? It depends on how one defines victory. By most counts, Iran is not likely to lose the war. Firstly, for Iran, this is an existential war, a war to survive. If the Iranian government is able to hold on long enough, it would have won despite the massive devastation caused by the relentless American and Israeli bombing of its cities.

Secondly, the people of Iran are too proud and nationalistic to surrender, and are likely to fight on. Shia Islam honours martyrdom in ways that can hardly be appreciated by the Western world. The killing of the rahbar Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has united the nation. Thirdly, the Iranian regime seems to possess enough missiles and drones to drag on the war. Reportedly, the Chinese and Russians are helping Iran covertly.

Will the US win this war? Given the military dominance that the US enjoys, it will not lose the war, but may not win it either. Firstly, the US has no clear objectives in this war. Is it to topple the present Iranian government, replace it with an acceptable one, decimate Iran’s nuclear programme, occupy Iran’s oil and gas fields as in Venezuela, fragment the country, or seek Iran’s unconditional surrender? Since the objectives are undefined, the end point of the war remains unclear. Secondly, it is difficult for the US to politically afford a long war because there is little appetite left in that country for distant wars, and Trump himself had argued against ‘forever’ wars. The disruption of oil supplies and vulnerability of the US allies in the Gulf have added to America’s despair.

Is Israel winning the war? Israel regards Iran as the only major resistance left to its cherished dream of a Greater Israel encompassing the Arab lands between the Euphrates and Nile. It has always been keen to change Iran’s regime, and finally managed to co-opt the US in this war. While the US ambassador to Israel calls it America’s biblical duty to help Israel, there are growing American voices resenting the overwhelming influence of Israel or its lobby AIPAC on American policies. If Iran survives this war, it would shatter any prospects of Israel’s dream of establishing its hegemony in the region or creating a Greater Israel.

Already, Israel is feeling the heat as Iran’s missiles are reportedly piercing through its iron dome and causing devastation.

Why has Iran embroiled the Gulf states in this conflict? Iran may argue that its war is not against the Gulf countries, but against the US bases in those countries which were being used against it. Nevertheless, the Gulf states are upset with Iran, fearful of the prospect of the latter bombing their desalination plants or oil installations. It seems that Iran’s strategy is to raise the cost of war for the entire region and beyond. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has raised serious concerns for the world economy and pressure is building to find an off-ramp to end this crisis.

Where, then, is the war headed? It appears that Iran is preparing for a long war. It first targeted America’s air defence systems installed in the region, and then started firing lethal missiles at positions in Israel and the US bases. Having failed to dislodge the Iranian regime, the US and Israel have opted for carpet bombing and mass murder of Iranians. If the Iranians refuse to surrender, one probable end point could be that Trump declares victory, and ends the war. Alternatively, the Gulf states, being the most vulnerable, pressurise the US to stop the war.

As the war drags on, it is becoming clear that no one would win. Each party to the conflict is losing something in this war. When the war ends, hopefully soon, Ameri­can credibility would have been seriously damaged. The Gulf states would wonder whether they should host the US bases, which failed to provide security to them, and turned out to be a vulnerability. Iran would have to work much harder to reconstruct the infrastructure that has been destroyed, though it can take pride in pushing back the most powerful military machine.

Pakistan is not a party to the conflict. Yet, it is also suffering, mainly due to higher fuel costs and possible loss of remittances. Diplomatically, Pakistan has played its cards well. It has condemned both the US aggression against Iran and Iranian attacks against the Gulf states. Given the Pak-Saudi strategic mutual defence agreement, Pakistan is using its good offices for peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia. When the fog of war settles, whichever way it does, the Middle East, as we know it now, would be a very different place.

The writer is chairman Sanober Institute and former foreign secretary of Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, March 15th, 2026

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