Energy security

ENERGY security is now national security for Pakistan. The war in the Middle East has made that clear. A conflict beyond our borders now threatens the shipments, foreign exchange stability and remittance flows that underpin Pakistan’s economy. For a country heavily dependent on imported energy, the risks are immediate.

Pakistan therefore faces an urgent strategic task: reducing its exposure to volatile imported fuel. The best way to do that is to accelerate the shift towards domestic energy sources through a credible energy transition and investment plan (ETIP).

For years, Pakistan’s dependence on imported fuel has been treated mainly as an economic vulnerability. It widens the trade deficit, weakens the currency and fuels inflation when global prices rise. But the current conflict highlights a deeper risk: when energy supplies are disrupted, the consequences ripple quickly through the wider economy.

The Strait of Hormuz sits at the centre of this exposure. In 2025, Asia absorbed around 87 per cent of the crude oil and 86pc of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) passing through the strait. Pakistan relies heavily on these flows. When shipping routes tighten or markets become uncertain, countries without deep pockets can find themselves being both price-takers and queue-takers.

Energy supply resilience is now a strategic priority.

The scale of this dependence is substantial. Between July and March of FY2025, Pakistan spent about $12.1 billion importing petroleum products. LNG is also a central component of the country’s energy mix: regasified LNG averaged roughly 798 million cubic feet per day during the same period, accounting for about a quarter of total gas consumption.

These vulnerabilities extend beyond energy markets. Pakistan’s economy is closely tied to the Gulf in another crucial way: remittances from Pakistani workers.

Prolonged instability in the Middle East could threaten these flows, which remain among the country’s most important sources of foreign exchange. Pakistan’s exposure to the Gulf therefore runs through two of the economy’s most important lifelines: energy imports and remittance inflows.

Energy insecurity is therefore not just an economic issue. It is a national security concern. When fuel supplies tighten globally, the consequences are immediate: higher transport and fertiliser costs, pressure on electricity tariffs, weaker industrial competitiveness, and social strain. Energy supply resilience is now a strategic priority.

The long-term answer lies in accelerating Pakistan’s shift towards domestic energy sources, particularly renewables. Unlike imported oil and gas, paid for in foreign currency, solar, wind, hydro and other low carbon sources of power rely primarily on domestic resources. Once installed, the marginal cost of generation is minimal.

The economics have changed sharply in recent years. In many cases, renewable power is now the least-cost option for expanding electricity supply. For Pakistan, scaling domestic clean power can simultaneously strengthen energy security, reduce import dependence and improve affordability.

But diversification requires planning. Solar and wind are variable and must be supported by stronger electricity grids,

better forecasting, storage and demand management. These are investment and infrastructure challenges that require coordinated policy and long-term planning.

An ETIP provides a practical framework for doing exactly that. It would map out how Pakistan can gradually replace its most expensive and volatile energy sources with more stable domestic al­­­ternatives. It would also help sequence inv­estments in generation, storage and transmission so that the power system remains reliable throughout the tra­­nsition.

Just as importantly, a credible plan can att­r­act private investment. Investors respond to clear strategies and predictable project pipelines. Without that clarity, capital tends to arrive only when crises force urgent reform.

The transformation will not take place overnight. Pakistan’s exposure reflects an energy system built over decades, shaped by the technology costs and financing options available at the time. An ETIP offers a pathway for a managed transition.

Pakistan is not starting from scratch. The government is already engaging with the United Nations system on integrated energy planning and strengthening institutional capacity for low-carbon transition. The task now is to translate that collaboration into a clear investment roadmap.

Pakistan cannot control conflicts beyond its borders. But it can decide how exposed its economy remains to them. Accelerating the transition towards domestic renewable energy sources is therefore not just climate policy. It is a strategic imperative for economic resilience and national security.

The writer is UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, March 25th, 2026

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