The blue war

THE ongoing war in West Asia is yet another manifestation of the breakdown of the world order. The first blow to this rules-based world order had come from its own architect — the United States of America, when it invaded Iraq in 2003 pre-emptively and illegally, setting a precedent that has since been repeated. The war launched by the US and Israel against Iran on Feb 28 was also unilateral, illegal and without clearly defined goals. US President Donald Trump has offered varying reasons: to change the Iranian regime, decimate its nuclear capability, or fragment the country. Employing their military dominance, the US and Israel have bombed tens of thousands of targets in Iran, hoping the regime would fall. It did not.

Iran responded by first eliminating US air defence systems, using cheaper versions of its drones, and then firing more lethal missiles. The most impactful Iranian manoeuvre, however, came in the waters of the Persian Gulf, when it blocked the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow passage provides for 20 per cent of global oil and gas flows. The impact on oil and gas prices was immediate and steep, despite the release of strategic reserves by members of the International Energy Agency. The US is keen to lift this blockade, but is unable to do so alone. Iran is employing several military capabilities in the waters of the strait, including naval mines, anti-ship cruise missiles from coastal sites, fast-attack craft and submarines, and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Why has the US failed to unblock the Strait of Hormuz or prevail in this war? According to Harlan Ullman in Anatomy of Failure: Why America Loses Every War It Starts, American administrations have consistently failed to use sound strategic thinking before employing force, and also lack sufficient understanding of the circumstances of the target country. It appears that in this war as well, the Trump administration had not adequately planned how it would undo Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The US also miscalculated Iran’s resolve and military capabilities. Moreover, it probably did not factor in the support that Iran might receive from China and Russia.

The war has now entered its fifth week, with neither side backing down. The US is contemplating boots on the ground, which could potentially make Iran another Vietnam for the US. Further, any body bags going back to mainland America could have fatal political costs for Trump. If Israel or the US attack Iran’s oil production facilities, the refineries and reservoirs of the Gulf countries could come under Iranian attacks. Prudently, the Gulf countries have not yet entered the war, even though Israel would wish them to jump into the fray. American bases in the Gulf countries have proven to be insufficient to protect the Gulf states. Israel, too, is now feeling the heat of war with its cities under constant attacks. If a desperate Israel uses tactical nuclear weapons, Iran might extend the war from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab al-Mandeb through the Houthis.

There are no good options left for the US except to end the war.

Clearly, there are no good options left for the US except to find a way to end the war. It has signalled its intent for talks, presumably through Pakistan. This could be an attempt to buy time to replenish the diminishing stocks of interceptors. Iran has also tabled five demands, which the US might find difficult to accept. If the war continues, the US could come under intense pressure from the Gulf countries and public opinion at home. It is quite possible that one fine morning, President Trump declares victory and ends the war. That would mean that Iran would also declare victory. The core problem of the region would rem­ain unresolved: the creation of a Pales­tinian state and an end to Israeli hegemony.

The enormous ma­­ritime implications of this war contain many lessons for Pakistan to lea­rn. First, Pakistan must continue its diplomatic pursuit of peace between Iran on one side and the US and Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, on the other. Our agreement with Saudi Arabia also de­­mands we play that role. Second, Pakistan must not enter the war on any side.

Third, Pakistan must keep itself prepared for turbulent times as India is continuing its Operation Sindoor through Afghanistan while the nature of warfare has totally changed. Fourth, while maintaining good ties with the US, Pakistan must not overlook the fact that China is its most reliable strategic partner. Fifth, Pakistan must make economic security its top priority besides defence. Dependence on donors shrinks foreign policy choices. Last but not least, Pakistan must focus on its maritime borders and upscale maritime diplomacy, linking up with likeminded countries to build an important layer of deterrence.

The writer is former foreign secretary of Pakistan.

Published in Dawn, March 29th, 2026

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