Heat before summer

MARCH has offered an early glimpse of the climate Pakistan is drifting towards. Data released by the Met Office shows that the country’s average minimum temperature reached 14.7°C, a striking 2.7°C anomaly above normal and the second-highest on record. The national mean temperature stood at 21.6°C, 2.3°C above average, ranking among the warmest Marches ever recorded. Even daytime highs were elevated, with a +2°C anomaly, while parts of Sindh touched 40.5°C as early as March 10. These figures matter not only because they are record-breaking; they matter also due to what they signal. Warmer nights, in particular, are a critical marker of climate change: they trap heat, reduce physiological recovery and steadily push up energy demand. When minimum temperatures rise this sharply, it suggests the baseline itself is shifting. The Met Office has already warned that temperatures are likely to remain above normal through the spring, with heightened heatwave risk across much of the country.

What makes all this more consequential is the timing. Globally, recent years have been the hottest on record, with warming trends accelerating rather than stabilising. For Pakistan — a country that contributes little to global emissions — this translates into earlier summers, compressed seasons and more volatile weather. March, once transitional, is now beginning to resemble pre-summer. The effects are set to intensify. Cities will heat up sooner and for longer, straining already fragile infrastructure. Agriculture will face disrupted growing cycles, with crops maturing faster under higher temperatures. In the north, accelerated snowmelt raises the risk of downstream flooding later in the season. Yet policy responses remain piecemeal. Heat action plans exist, but coverage is uneven; urban planning continues to ignore heat exposure; and climate adaptation financing remains slow to materialise. The warning signs could not be clearer. When extremes begin appearing in what should be a mild month, the future is no longer approaching gradually — it is arriving out of season.

Published in Dawn, April 7th, 2026

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