AJK outlook

AS the staggered polls for the AJK Legislative Assembly enter their final stretch, it appears that the PML-N is in a commanding position, and is already working on a governance plan for the region. Marred by violence as well as allegations of rigging by the PPP — the PML-N’s coalition partner at the centre — these polls have not been without controversy. Re-polling will be held at some polling stations in Bagh over the weekend, while votes will be cast in seven constituencies of Poonch division on Aug 20 or Aug 21. Polling was postponed in these constituencies due to the volatile law and order situation.

The AJK polls have exposed a widening gap between the PML-N and PPP, with the latter claiming that the AJK Election Commission had not ensured transparent polling. PML-N leaders, however, have downplayed these concerns, saying that their party head Nawaz Sharif will choose the next AJK prime minister. While the PML-N’s lead looks unassailable at this point, as we have stated before, government formation should only commence when polling has concluded in all constituencies. Furthermore, the election commission should thoroughly investigate all claims of electoral irregularities, as a controversial voting exercise will cast a long shadow over the next administration, putting its legitimacy into question.

While it is important for elections to be held even in the most difficult of circumstances, unless the polls are seen to be free and fair, the underlying problems fuelling public disaffection will become more severe. AJK has seen anti-government protests off and on for the past three years. Led by the now banned Joint Awami Action Committee, the protests picked up momentum in June this year. There is no doubt that the violence associated with these protests and the incendiary rhetoric of some JAAC leaders are indefensible. But the protest movement itself cannot be brushed aside. True, some of the JAAC’s demands, such as the removal of refugee seats, concern constitutional matters, which cannot be settled through street power; these issues must be decided within the AJK legislature. But at the root of the protests of the last few years is a demand for good governance. Unless elections are seen to be fair, and the next administration tries to resolve the protesters’ legitimate demands, political unrest in AJK is likely to continue, despite polls being held there. PML-N leaders have said the protesters’ “valid demands” will be addressed. Considering the sensitivity of the region, the electoral process must be marked by transparency so that there is general acceptance of the outcome. If the PML-N does take up the reins in Muzaffarabad, it must reach out to the PPP and other political players in the region, as well as peaceful protesters, to address all concerns in a democratic fashion.

Published in Dawn, August 13th, 2026

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