Fragile ground

AZAD Kashmir is again witnessing violent protests — the second time within a year — led by the Joint Action Committee, which comprises individuals from different political backgrounds and sections of society. The unrest in this sensitive region had been building up for some time, and had been initially driven by local socioeconomic demands. However, it has now evolved into a broa­der movement, primarily involving youth disillusioned with the current system of governance.

Unfortunately, the state’s aggressive response has exacerbated matters. Instead of addressing the protesters’ grievances and attempting a political solution, the government chose to crack down, further fuelling public anger. Blacking out the news on mainstream media will not stop information about the events from spreading on social media. As is its wont, the government has attributed the protests to a foreign conspiracy — which is a narrow view of the situation. Threatening statements from government officials will not help defuse the situation.

Three years ago, the people took to the streets to protest against the shortage of flour and high electricity tariffs. The situation was defused when the administration accepted the people’s demands, but other issues continued to simmer. Discontent rose with growing unemployment among the youth, and political manipulation was alleged. The demand for abolishing reserved seats in the AJK assembly reflected the frustration of a large segment of the local people who perceived the government being run from outside.

Last year’s protests in September/ October, compelled the government to negotiate with the protesters. Most of their demands were accepted, and the administration promised to implement them within 80 days. These demands primarily focused on the provision of basic socioeconomic facilities. However, a major sticking point was the call for the abolishment of the ‘refugee seats’, which have long been used by Islamabad to manipulate the political system. The government claims it has accepted most of the 38 points raised by the protesters, and both Islamabad and the AJK government promised to address the issue of reserved seats. However, more than eight months later, no progress has been made on this matter, with the simmering political discontent threatening to escalate.

The authorities’ aggressive response to protests has aggravated matters in AJK.

Reports indicate that several policemen and demonstrators were killed in the recent clashes, and the situation is still not under control, contrary to what Islamabad and the local authorities say. The use of force could alienate the population in this extremely sensitive region, which has significant geopolitical implications for Pakistan. Unfortunately, those in power have yet to understand the gravity of the situation.

A flawed electoral system has long been used to install compliant administrations or unseat those that have fallen out of favour. Under AJK’s interim constitution of 1974, of the directly elected 45 seats, 33 fall within the geographical boundaries of AJK, while 12 seats are reserved for Kashmiri refugees residing in Pakistan. Six of these 12 seats are allocated for refugees from Indian-occupied Jammu, and six are for refugees from the Indian-occupied Kashmir Valley. Geographically, eight of the seats are for Kashmiris in Punjab, with the rest divided between Sindh, Balochistan, and KP.

In Azad Kashmir, the number of voters in an electoral constituency ranges from 70,000 to 130,000. In contrast, for the six seats reserved for Jammu refugees, the registered votes can range from 37,000 and to 110,000. The total number of votes in the six constituencies reserved for the Kashmir Valley is 33,000, with individual constituencies having between 3,300 and 7,700 votes, according to the AJK Election Commission’s data from the last elections in 2021.

Since these reserved seats lie outside the geographical and constitutional boundaries of AJK, their presence clashes with the fundamental structure of the interim constitution. Furthermore, elections for these seats are not conducted by the AJK Election Commission but by the Election Commission of Pakistan through the respective provincial administration, leaving no mechanism for accountability to the AJK Election Commission. Those elected to these reserved seats often lack any genuine stake in the region, and the seats typically go to the ruling party in Islamabad.

Complaints of fraudulent voting for these seats have been persistent. In the current assembly, the residency certificates of four members out of the 12 are reported to be questionable, and investigations are ongoing in the courts. Additionally, one member’s state subject certificate has been declared fake by the Supreme Court, which ordered action, but no measures have been taken. Despite such doubtful credentials, members elected to these reserved seats play a critical role in the formation of AJK governments, with many becoming ministers without any real connection to the region.

It is not surprising that whichever party is in power in Islamabad typically forms the government in AJK and is unseated with the shifting power dynamics in Pakistan. This political manipulation is seen in the fact that the region has had four prime ministers since the 2021 elections. Predictably, that election was won by the PTI, which was also in power in Islamabad. The election of Faisal Mumtaz Rathore, the current prime minister, through a vote of no-confidence against his predecessor, has raised questions. It followed the PPP’s consolidating its position after the defection of 10 PTI legislators. Without a floor-crossing rule, horse-trading has become the norm.

Last week, the AJK Supreme Court upheld a reference filed by the AJK government, stating that the provision of reserved seats could only be altered through a constitutional amendment. But can an assembly, a quarter whose members are elected on reserved seats, make such changes? When democratic recourse is closed off, the people have no choice but to fight for their rights. No force can stop the power of the people.

The writer is an author and journalist.

zhussain100@yahoo.com

X: @hidhussain

Published in Dawn, June 10th, 2026

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