Making America great again

In 2023 the US imported goods worth $3.83 trillion, including goods worth $375 billion from Mexico, $427 billion from China and $421 billion from Canada, and the rest from the rest of the world. By the end of 2024, the US trade deficit with these states was $171.8 billion, $295.4 billion and $63.3 billion respectively. Of all this, and after the Trump/Biden tariffs of the past 8 years, the US is still importing large amounts of petroleum, cars and car parts from Canada and Mexico, and phones and computers from China. So, how will the new tariffs - which will require US importers to collect a 25% tax on all goods from Canada and Mexico from American consumers, and a 10% tax on all goods from China — work to make America great again? Trump may be thinking that these tariffs will get other countries to do what he wants them to do; that they will also raise lots of revenue for the US government and may promote domestic companies to produce more. Is everybody going to do what Trump thinks they ought to do? That is what the problem is. The quicksand of the US economy is actually uglier than this, and hence more irreparable. The US national debt is over $36.22 trillion. This debt that includes US treasury bonds is incurring an interest cost of around $3 billion a day. This means that while US-dominated financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank trap other nations in debts, the US has been burying itself in a universally large debt-trap hole all by itself. The biggest industries making revenues in the US are mostly in the service sector, like hospitals, schools, banks, car dealerships and insurances. While drugs, cosmetics, toiletries and pharmaceuticals are the biggest industries in the US, China's biggest industries are copper mining, civil construction, bridge, tunnel and subway construction, software development, steel rolling, and oil and petroleum refining. While the IT sector is projected to make $550 billion in the US in 2025, the projection for China in the same sector is $13,314 billion. This has happened even after Trump and Biden put successive sanctions to stop Taiwan and other countries to sell advanced semiconductor chips to China. How will tariffs change all that? Last time when Trump and Biden put tariffs on China, imports from China decreased. But as it happened, imports from Mexico and Canada increased. It was estimated that the same cars and car-components were being shipped to Mexico and from there to the US, just to avoid the sanctions. This means that people can go around sanctions by finding new pathways, or perhaps also by finding new markets. The way tariffs work is also interesting to note. For instance, if a car made in China costs $30,000 and the US puts a 100% tariff on its import, the Chinese producer will still be getting the $30,000, while the importer company will be charging $60,000 to the US consumer of the car, and the surplus $30,000 will go into the government coffers. Resultantly, as the US consumer has to pay more, it is encouraged to buy a US-made car in say $55,000. So, the US government gets richer and the US industry gets a boost. But this doesn't mean that US cars would be able to compete worldwide, where China's cars are giving more value for less dollars. Speaking of dollars, the US is the world's biggest economy because of its hold on the dollar. Dollar-dominance gives it a position to control world's money flow though SWIFT, and where states are ready to invest in US financial institutions. This dominance allows the US to strike sanctions at the level of individuals and companies, and to make money out of money. For instance, since the US is China's biggest importer, it has encouraged China to invest in its treasury bonds. So it goes like this: China dumps all its surplus profits in US treasury; US feels like it paid only half the price of the already cheap goods from China; China gets interests from the bonds, invests it in its industry and military, while its base money is safe in US banks. If China asks the US to return all the bonds it owes to China, either the already stressed US banking system will collapse or the US will simply print more dollars and give them to China - and in that case the US remains as indebted while China gets all the dollars it wants to spend. Another extreme measure that the US can do is to blame China for something and freeze its assets, or simply entangle it in a war. All such negative speculations have added up in uniting and emboldening the Global South against the US and its allies - to the point that, in the coming years, the US may not be able to compete economically or even militarily with the rest of the world's efforts combined against it. So, to make America great again, what Trump needs to do is reduce wages of his own people so that, for instance, its own car industry can make a high-end car for $30,000; so it can compete with China in the country and all around the world. Even more so, Trump should ban import of car for 5 years, so that people really have to buy their own cars, and the industry gets a real boost. But instead of taking the bitter pill, if Trump wants to rely on threats and bullying, and some shortcut financial tricks, that won't make America great again; it will rather make America more isolated, envied and deceived. Increasing sanctions and tariff regime coming into effect from the Global North upon the Global South will probably cause inflationary effect in both the US and world market and depress both the US and the global economic growth, thereby forcing targeted states to make extreme retaliatory steps — steps that could very well be unprecedented and disruptive. And perhaps this retaliation could harm the US more than Trump's imagination. Because, for instance, Canada makes $35 billion worth of auto-parts used in the US car industry every year, and Mexico accounts for 60% of US vegetable imports and 50% of all fruit and nut imports. What if these two countries decide to stop these exports! Perhaps Trump wants his people to keep feeling rich, when they're actually getting poorer by the day. But you can't become great if you live in a façade and cannot face hard truths. But perhaps Trump lives in the same façade! A façade from inside whose delusional house of mirrors, he can make preposterous utterance that defy international laws and basic human rights, and yet call America the greatest nation of the world. And from where he can talk of gobbling up Greenland, Canada, and now even Gaza, to satiate an insatiable imperial lust. All that could seem to Trump as the unique greatness of America, but to the rest of the world it seems nothing but unjust bullying, threats and coercion.

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